This report indicates quarterly and annual EPS surprises based on the most accurate estimates. This report takes into consideration the difference between the general consensus estimate and the most accurate analysts' EPS consensus for the fiscal period.
The most accurate EPS consensus is computed by ranking the analysts' historical performance. Zacks' methodology for identifying the most accurate analysts is based on computing the historical errors of an analyst. Analysts with the smallest errors are considered to be the best analysts. The analysts are ranked based on a historical average of their errors, with the smallest errors being the best.
The most accurate quarterly consensus is computed by ranking the average of the analysts' absolute errors for the last two quarters.
The criteria for annual analyst EPS accuracy is the average number of month end forecasts during the past four years when the analyst's annual EPS absolute forecast error was less than the absolute consensus error for the year.
The expected surprise in this report is calculated as [(Most Accurate Consensus Estimate – Consensus Estimate)/Consensus Estimate] x100 %.
The potential surprises are then "normalized" (divided by the Standard Deviation of Consensus) and ranked. This rank is determined as [(Most Accurate Consensus – Consensus Estimate)/Standard Deviation of Consensus]. The higher the Surprise Rank, the more there is a potential for a surprises.
Additional information provided by this report includes: fiscal period end month, number of estimates for each company, and expected report date.
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